“The operation confirmed that our armed forces are prepared,” Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi informed crowds gathered Wednesday in Tehran to mark Military Day. Parades within the Iranian capital featured most of the identical munitions used within the assault on Israel.

Raisi hailed the assault as a convincing “success,” however was additionally fast to qualify the strikes as “restricted” and “not complete.”

“If it was presupposed to be a large-scale motion, nothing would have been left of the Zionist regime,” he stated. And if Israel retaliates, Raisi pledged, “they are going to be handled fiercely and severely.”

But after analyzing the munitions utilized in Saturday’s assault and the success of regional protection programs, researchers say it’s unclear how Iran might inflict larger injury on Israel by means of standard army means.

“Iran mainly threw all the pieces it had that might attain Israel’s territory,” stated John Krzyzaniak, a researcher who research Iran’s missile packages on the Wisconsin Mission on Nuclear Arms Management. Like different analysts interviewed for this story, he has spent the previous a number of days learning launch movies, imagery of particles and interception info to determine the Iranian munitions.

His conclusion is that Tehran “used a few of each system they’ve.” And consultants stated it made sense that the Sejjil-1 and Shahab-3 missiles had been excluded from the assault.

Shahab-3 “wasn’t used as a result of it’s so previous,” stated Fabian Hinz, an Iran analyst on the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research in Berlin. “The Sejjil is a little bit of a mysterious missile,” he stated, including that Iran has “used it very, little or no throughout maneuvers.”

Different analysts famous the Sejjil was costly to supply and will not be in manufacturing.

The amount of munitions used additionally supplies new insights into Iran’s capabilities. The deployment of over 100 ballistic missiles in a single wave means that earlier estimates that Iran has about 3,000 ballistic missiles stockpiled are most likely correct, and will even be on the low finish.

“If that is simply spherical one in all an unknown variety of rounds to return, you wouldn’t hearth a big fraction of what you might have simply within the first spherical,” Krzyzaniak stated.

The firing of over 100 ballistic missiles within the house of some minutes suggests Iran has a minimum of 100 launchers, he added — a brand new information level for researchers.

“This exhibits that Iran has actually confronted no limitation in domestically producing missiles and launchers,” he stated.

Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, the most important of any nation within the Center East, is nearly totally homegrown. Lately Iran has demonstrated the flexibility to improve some programs, enhancing their vary and precision.

The spokesman for Iran’s armed forces, Abolfazl Shekarchi, stated the munitions used within the strikes towards Israel solely represented “a fraction of” the nation’s army’s may, in accordance with a press release revealed on state-run media.

Earlier than the assault on Israel, Iran’s most important use of ballistic missiles was in 2020, after a U.S. drone assault killed the highly effective Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.

Iran launched greater than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. army bases in Iraq, one within the nation’s west and one within the north. Whereas there have been no fatalities, dozens of U.S. service members suffered traumatic mind accidents.

Iran additionally used ballistic missiles in strikes this yr on Pakistan, Syria and Iraq.

However the assault on Israel means that a lot of Iran’s munitions are of low high quality. Israel’s army stated 99 p.c of the missiles and drones launched by Iran had been intercepted or didn’t launch.

“We noticed that accuracy and precision are a piece in progress,” stated Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow on the Basis for Protection of Democracies who has written extensively about Iran’s missile program. “These weapons alone gained’t win a battle for Iran.”

Iranian drones made up the primary wave of the assault. Low-cost, efficient and straightforward to supply, Iranian drones have been utilized in assaults throughout the Center East for years. Iran has additionally provided drones to Russia for its battle in Ukraine, the place they’ve been lethal.

Through the assault on Israel, the slow-moving drones had been most likely deployed to occupy air defenses and permit extra superior munitions to get by means of. All of the drones had been shot down earlier than getting into Israeli airspace, the Israel Protection Forces stated.

Ali Hamie, a Lebanese army analyst, stated Iran had most likely gleaned essential classes about Israel’s aerial defenses. Commentators on Iranian state tv have made comparable factors.

“It could possibly be a testing assault,” Hamie stated, “and the Iranians obtained what they need. Making it previous the air defenses isn’t solely a symbolic victory, however actual victory.”

One of many few missiles to make it by means of the interceptors hit an Israeli air base within the Negev desert. Photographs of the strike had been run on loop on many state-run Iranian broadcasters within the days after the assault. Israel characterised the injury as minor.

Along with analyzing Israel’s air defenses, Tehran will most likely even be learning the issues with its missile programs that reportedly led to failures at launch and in flight, in accordance with Afshon Ostovar, a professor of nationwide safety affairs on the Naval Postgraduate College in California.

“One other assault could possibly be more practical,” he stated. However finally the sort of method demonstrated in Saturday’s assault “isn’t actually sustainable over a long-term battle.”

Even when Iran modified the tempo of assaults and adjusted the munitions used, “they’d nonetheless need to launch various stuff for just some [munitions] to get by means of,” he stated.

Some Iranian officers have advised they’ve held again their most harmful weapons.

“We’re ready to make use of weapons we’ve got by no means used earlier than. We now have plans for each situation,” stated Abolfazl Amoui, a parliamentary nationwide safety spokesman, in an interview with Lebanese broadcaster Mayadeen.

However analysts say it’s unlikely that anybody sort of munition could possibly be a sport changer. Slightly, it’s extra probably Iran would use the identical sorts of munitions in a future assault, however otherwise: giving much less warning, or launching the barrage in live performance with allied militant teams within the area. The nation’s proxy forces, from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen, performed little position in Saturday’s assault.

As Israel mulls its response, Tehran has warned {that a} counterattack would are available “a matter of seconds.”

“Iran is not going to wait for one more 12 days to reply,” Deputy Overseas Minister Ali Bagheri Kani stated Monday.

Whereas the US and Israel have celebrated the thwarting of Saturday’s assault, analysts are urging humility.

“The variety of munitions it took to repel the assault was huge, pricey and could possibly be tough to duplicate,” stated Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Protection Mission on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research.

“Israel could have gotten fortunate and Iran could have gotten very unfortunate.”

William Neff and Suzan Haidamous contributed to this report.