A verdict is lastly looming in Hong Kong’s longest operating and largest nationwide safety trial of 47 pro-democracy legislators and political activists, with the defendants having collectively logged 39,000 days or some 108 years on remand even earlier than the sentencing part of the trial begins.

The group was first arrested by the territory’s nationwide safety police in a pre-dawn crackdown on January 6, 2021, for allegedly conspiring to commit “subversion” by organising an unofficial major election to decide on pro-democracy candidates in July 2020. The defendants embody the alleged organisers in addition to would-be candidates who hoped to win the first and contest then semi-democratic legislative council elections, which had been ultimately cancelled, with prosecutors claiming it was an try to “overthrow” the federal government.

Two-thirds of the defendants have been in remand since a marathon bail listening to in March 2021.

On Thursday, a panel of three handpicked nationwide safety judges will begin delivering their verdict for the 16 defendants who pleaded “not responsible”.

The choice follows a prolonged trial that ran from February to December 2023 and was delayed not solely by outbreaks of COVID-19 but additionally by the sheer logistics of organising such an infinite enterprise.

Regardless of the lengthy anticipate the decision, the conclusion appears to be foregone stated Eric Lai, a analysis fellow on the Georgetown Heart for Asian Regulation in the US.

Lai stated that as early as 2020, Beijing’s liaison workplace in Hong Kong had already expressed its displeasure with the first vote and accused the contributors of “subversion”, setting the tone for the federal government response to return. In a single sweep, nationwide safety police had been capable of silence a complete era of pro-democracy activists and legislators, he added.

“Most of those defendants will not be merely particular person contributors, they’re former lawmakers, former political social gathering figures and key figures within the opposition power,” Lai advised Al Jazeera. “They had been the icons of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy motion previously. Throughout this trial, it appears very potential that they are going to get convicted below the manuscript of Beijing.”

At situation is whether or not the 47 deliberate to make use of their positions within the legislative council – in the event that they received the election – to veto Hong Kong’s annual price range, in a transfer that may have compelled the town’s high chief to step down and dissolve the legislature.

On the time, there was some measure of competitors for seats within the legislature with some members chosen by means of direct election (the foundations had been modified in 2021 to require the pre-vetting of all candidates to make sure solely “patriots” may contest).

A report variety of a minimum of 600,000 Hong Kong individuals turned out for the unofficial primaries, with the big queues seen as a rebuke of the Hong Kong authorities.

A 12 months earlier in 2019, the town had been swept by mass anti-government protests. The democratic camp had swept the board in that 12 months’s district council elections and hoped to construct on that assist within the Legislative Council. With the protesters’ calls for largely unmet, vetoing the price range appeared like one of many few instruments left to the opposition, and in response to defendant Gwenyth Ho, a former reporter, it was their constitutional proper below Hong Kong’s Primary Regulation. 

For his or her involvement, defendants face a most of life imprisonment below the safety regulation imposed by Beijing in 2020, though this cost is reserved for “major offenders” or anybody prosecutors have recognized as a pacesetter.

Decrease-level “offenders” face between three and 10 years for “energetic” participation, whereas “different contributors” may very well be taking a look at so long as three years in jail.

Pleading responsible often earns defendants a decreased sentence, however it’s unclear whether or not the nationwide safety court docket will observe the conference.

Legislators, nurses, attorneys

Starting from their late 20s to their late 60s, the 47 embody a few of Hong Kong’s highest profile opposition figures together with Benny Tai, 59, a authorized scholar and one of many alleged organisers; democracy activist Joshua Wong, 27; former journalist and legislator Claudia Mo, 67; and lifelong activist Leung Kwok-hung, 68, popularly referred to as “Lengthy Hair”.

Different defendants have additionally devoted their lives to public service however have maintained decrease profiles. They embody 47-year-old Gordon Ng, a twin Australian citizen who has been portrayed by prosecutors because the election organiser and has been repeatedly denied Australian consular help. He’s among the many 16 who pleaded not responsible.

The opposite three named organisers, legislators Au Nok-him, 33; Andrew Chiu, 38; and Ben Chung, 35, all pleaded responsible and testified as witnesses for the prosecution in a transfer seen as a part of an effort to acquire a decreased sentence.  Mike Lam, 35, a businessman and member of the 47, additionally testified for the prosecution.

Different defendants embody Winnie Yu, 37, a Hong Kong nurse, who pleaded not responsible and has been detained since 2021. Earlier than then, she helped organise hospital employees protests in early 2020 to demand the town shut its border with China following the outbreak of COVID-19.

Owen Chow, 26, an activist and former nursing pupil, and the previous reporter Gwyneth Ho, 33, each pleaded not responsible and had been a number of the few defendants of the 47 who testified on the trial in their very own defence.

Throughout her trial final July, Ho reportedly advised prosecutors the 47 anticipated that pro-democracy candidates may be disqualified from operating for workplace after the election major – nevertheless it was nonetheless definitely worth the effort as a result of Hong Kong individuals may “construct one thing new,” in response to Hong Kong Free Press.

“I imagine that the majority Hongkongers knew deep down of their hearts that combating for democracy below the Chinese language Communist regime has at all times been a fantasy,” Ho reportedly advised the court docket in Cantonese.

She additionally stated the disqualifications may create a “legitimacy disaster” for Beijing abroad as a result of it might seem like going in opposition to the wishes of the Hong Kong individuals.

Hong Kong barrister and former district councillor Lawrence Lau Wai-chung, 56, pleaded not responsible and defended himself on the stand. Earlier than his arrest, he helped to defend younger protesters arrested throughout the metropolis’s 2019 pro-democracy protests. He was additionally one of many few defendants granted bail.

Clarisse Yeung, 37, a former district councillor with a background in visible arts, pleaded not responsible and was amongst those that declined to testify. She was additionally taken to hospital with exhaustion throughout the three-day March 2021 bail listening to and, like Lau, was granted bail.

Even after the decision is learn, the trial of the 47 is not going to be over. The trial will then proceed to its sentencing and mitigation part when judges will think about the circumstances of every defendant.

Lai advised Al Jazeera it may take as much as six months to achieve its full conclusion, and any defendants out on bail could have it revoked.

As soon as they’re sentenced, defendants won’t be able to earn break day for “good behaviour” due to current modifications in Hong Kong regulation. Earlier this 12 months, the town adopted a home model of the nationwide safety invoice, identified colloquially as Article 23, which now provides better oversight to the correctional division in nationwide safety circumstances. It’ll apply retroactively to circumstances earlier than the regulation was handed, in response to chief John Lee.

The 2020 nationwide safety regulation criminalised offences deemed secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with overseas forces. Article 23 expands on these prices and provides new ones like theft of state secrets and techniques, sedition, rebel, and treason. Hong Kong made its first arrests below that regulation earlier this week.

The Georgetown Heart for Asia Regulation, which is holding monitor of the circumstances in Hong Kong courts, has stated 286 people had been arrested by nationwide safety police between July 2020 and December 31, 2023. Of them, 156 have been charged below the nationwide safety regulation or a lately revived regulation in opposition to sedition that dates again to the British colonial period.

The mass trial has already broken Hong Kong’s fame because the “freest” metropolis in Asia, however its results will go far deeper in the long run, warned Kevin Yam, a former Hong Kong lawyer and democracy activist who now lives in Australia.  Town has seen an exodus of overseas corporations and monetary establishments because the pandemic – when authorities imposed debilitating well being laws – and the imposition of the safety regulation.

Whereas some have began coming again, the trial ought to give them pause in regards to the high quality of governance, in response to Yam, who can also be needed by Hong Kong police for nationwide safety “crimes”, providing a a million Hong Kong greenback ($128,888) “reward” for anybody who gives info resulting in his arrest.

“Worldwide companies should be very frightened about the truth that the opposition has been worn out of the Hong Kong political scene with circumstances like this, the standard of governance and accountability has simply gone by means of the ground,” he advised Al Jazeera.

Latest blunders embody an try at altering the town’s garbage assortment schedule, to an ill-fated try to lure soccer star Lionel Messi to play in Hong Kong on untenable phrases. Earlier this 12 months, metropolis officers additionally welcomed an investor who claimed to be associated to Dubai’s ruling household with out correctly vetting his credentials.

As Hong Kong police dedicate assets to prosecuting political offences, extraordinary crime can also be growing. The variety of reported crimes in Hong Kong has risen steadily annually since 2018 after falling for 5 consecutive years. Between 2022 and 2023, crime surged by 29 %, in response to police information, with a pointy rise in on-line scams and fraud.

Yam stated that earlier than the nationwide safety regulation, the opposition would have been capable of maintain the federal government to account for this crime surge.

“When you look again at 2019 and who triggered lots of the heightened anger among the many populace, you consider individuals like [Chief Executive] John Lee and [Secretary for Security] Chris Tang. They’ve really been promoted,” he stated. “So in actual fact, in an setting the place opposition is being obliterated, incompetence is definitely being promoted by the central authorities.”